AOS · NYSE · Household Appliances
$59.45 · $8.4B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
8 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 22%
Bear
$44.46
Base
$76.51
Bull
$121.67
Price $59.45
8 pass · 1 mixed · 1 fail · 0 can't tell
Each dollar retained over the period has been matched by 0.0× of market value created ($2.4B retained in total).
Why this testAt $59.45, the price is 22% below the base-case value of $76.51 (the bear case is $44.46). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 3.0% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 24%, reaching 15% in 9 of the years measured; the weakest year was 13%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 32% over 10 years and was 31% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $155.0M would take 0.3 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 54×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $548.5M, and free cash flow has averaged 107% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.0× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $68.7M last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -2.4% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 6.5% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$44.46
Base
$76.51
Bull
$121.67
Price $59.45
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $548.5M | -0.1% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $44.46 |
| base | $548.5M | 3.9% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $76.51 |
| bull | $548.5M | 6.9% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $121.67 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -0.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $93 | $105 | $119 | $134 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $151 |
| 7.1% | $73 | $83 | $93 | $105 | $118 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $61 | $68 | $76 | $86 | $96 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $52 | $58 | $65 | $73 | $81 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $45 | $50 | $56 | $63 | $70 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $59.45 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$3.8B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
4.0%
Operating margin (avg)
18%
Return on equity (avg)
24%
ROIC (avg)
32%
Normalised owner earnings
$548.5M
Cash conversion
107%
Net cash
$38.2M
Debt payback
0.3 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-2.4%
Price / earnings
15×
Owner earnings yield
6.5%