ASO · Nasdaq · Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores
$59.65 · $4.1B market value · fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Live from the latest filings
9 of 9
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 56%
Bear
$75.82
Base
$134.45
Bull
$216.92
Price $59.65
The price is below even the bear case.
9 pass · 0 mixed · 0 fail · 1 can't tell
Needs both a price history and positive retained earnings across the period.
Why this testNo loss years across 8 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 4.0% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 31%, reaching 15% in 6 of the years measured; the weakest year was 18%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 27% over 6 years and was 17% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $483.8M would take 1.5 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 15×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $333.5M, and free cash flow has averaged 158% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.1× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $203.7M last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.4% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $59.65, the price is 56% below the base-case value of $134.45 (the bear case is $75.82). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 8.2% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$75.82
Base
$134.45
Bull
$216.92
Price $59.65
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $333.5M | 6.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $75.82 |
| base | $333.5M | 10.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $134.45 |
| bull | $333.5M | 13.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $216.92 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $168 | $190 | $214 | $241 |
Fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $271 |
| 7.1% | $131 | $147 | $166 | $186 | $209 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $107 | $120 | $134 | $151 | $169 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $90 | $101 | $113 | $126 | $141 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $77 | $87 | $97 | $108 | $121 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $59.65 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$6.1B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
3.4%
Operating margin (avg)
8.6%
Return on equity (avg)
31%
ROIC (avg)
27%
Normalised owner earnings
$333.5M
Cash conversion
158%
Net debt
$153.5M
Debt payback
1.5 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.4%
Price / earnings
11×
Owner earnings yield
8.2%