COF · NYSE · National Commercial Banks
$200.29 · $108.4B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
3 of 5
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 20%
Bear
$114.56
Base
$251.68
Bull
$441.37
Price $200.29
3 pass · 1 mixed · 1 fail · 1 can't tell
Return on equity averaged 9.2%, reaching 15% in 1 of the years measured; the weakest year was 2.8%.
Why this testAt $200.29, the price is 20% below the base-case value of $251.68 (the bear case is $114.56). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testFor banks and insurers debt is raw material, so leverage is judged through capital strength in the qualitative review rather than this test.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.0× of market value created ($39.9B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -3.8% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testBook value and sustainable returns
Bear
$114.56
Base
$251.68
Bull
$441.37
Price $200.29
| Scenario | Book value | Return on equity | Growth | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $113.6B | 6.2% | 2.0% | 9.7% | $114.56 |
| base | $113.6B | 9.2% | 3.0% | 8.2% | $251.68 |
| bull | $113.6B | 11.2% | 3.5% | 7.2% | $441.37 |
Financial company: valued on book value and sustainable return on equity, not owner earnings.
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -1.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $299 | $333 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $411 |
| $762 |
| n/a |
| 7.1% | $262 | $279 | $312 | $408 | $3,044 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $233 | $240 | $252 | $278 | $397 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $210 | $211 | $211 | $211 | $212 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $192 | $188 | $181 | $170 | $145 |
|---|
Greyed cells are more than three times, or under a third of, the middle value. They show how sensitive the model is. Treat them as bounds.
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $200.29 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Net income
$2.5B
Return on equity (avg)
9.2%
Lowest ROE
2.8%
Book value
$113.6B
Book value per share growth
14%
Price / book
1.0×
Price / earnings
44×
Share count change (CAGR)
-3.8%