DAL · NYSE · Air Transportation, Scheduled
$76.75 · $50.2B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
4 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 32%
Bear
$60.02
Base
$113.21
Bull
$188.18
Price $76.75
4 pass · 5 mixed · 1 fail · 0 can't tell
One loss year across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 27% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 12%, reaching 15% in 8 of the years measured; the weakest year was -147%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 9.8% over 10 years and was 16% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $13.3B would take 3.0 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 6.8×. Interest cover decided this: 4x to 8x is mixed (payback alone would be a pass, at 4 years or less).
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $4.4B, and free cash flow has averaged 49% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.9× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $3.3B last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.3× of market value created ($10.4B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.6% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $76.75, the price is 32% below the base-case value of $113.21 (the bear case is $60.02). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 8.8% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$60.02
Base
$113.21
Bull
$188.18
Price $76.75
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $4.4B | -0.9% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $60.02 |
| base | $4.4B | 3.1% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $113.21 |
| bull | $4.4B | 6.1% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $188.18 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -0.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $140 | $160 | $183 | $209 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $237 |
| 7.1% | $108 | $123 | $141 | $160 | $182 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $87 | $99 | $113 | $129 | $146 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $72 | $82 | $94 | $107 | $121 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $61 | $70 | $80 | $91 | $103 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $76.75 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$63.4B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
5.4%
Operating margin (avg)
2.7%
Return on equity (avg)
12%
ROIC (avg)
9.8%
Normalised owner earnings
$4.4B
Cash conversion
49%
Net debt
$9.0B
Debt payback
3.0 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.6%
Price / earnings
10×
Owner earnings yield
8.8%