DHI · NYSE · Operative Builders
$139.54 · $43.2B market value · fiscal year to 30 Sept 2025
Live from the latest filings
8 of 9
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 63%
Bear
$221.95
Base
$381.39
Bull
$605.64
Price $139.54
The price is below even the bear case.
8 pass · 1 mixed · 0 fail · 1 can't tell
Normalised owner earnings are $4.1B, and free cash flow has averaged 47% of reported profit.
Why this testFewer than three years of return on capital can be measured.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 21%, reaching 15% in 7 of the years measured; the weakest year was 14%.
Why this testNo meaningful debt is reported; net cash stands at $3.0B.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.5× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $137.4M last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.2× of market value created ($27.0B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -2.1% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $139.54, the price is 63% below the base-case value of $381.39 (the bear case is $221.95). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 9.6% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$221.95
Base
$381.39
Bull
$605.64
Price $139.54
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $4.1B | 6.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $221.95 |
| base | $4.1B | 10.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $381.39 |
| bull | $4.1B | 13.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $605.64 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $473 | $532 | $598 | $671 |
Fiscal year to 30 Sept 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $752 |
| 7.1% | $371 | $416 | $466 | $522 | $584 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $306 | $342 | $381 | $426 | $475 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $260 | $289 | $322 | $359 | $399 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $226 | $251 | $279 | $309 | $343 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $139.54 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$34.3B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
12%
Operating margin (avg)
13%
Return on equity (avg)
21%
ROIC (avg)
19%
Normalised owner earnings
$4.1B
Cash conversion
47%
Net cash
$3.0B
Debt payback
n/a
Share count change (CAGR)
-2.1%
Price / earnings
12×
Owner earnings yield
9.6%
Missing from the filings: debt.