DKS · NYSE · Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores
$143.35 · $12.2B market value · fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Live from the latest filings
9 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 50%
Bear
$169.98
Base
$285.46
Bull
$447.89
Price $143.35
The price is below even the bear case.
9 pass · 1 mixed · 0 fail · 0 can't tell
Debt isn't reported in the filings, so payback can't be measured. Operating income covers interest 17×, which suggests debt is modest.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 3.9% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 30%, reaching 15% in 10 of the years measured; the weakest year was 15%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 61% over 9 years and was 19% in the latest year.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $843.0M, and free cash flow has averaged 100% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.4× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $534.2M last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.3× of market value created ($4.8B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -3.0% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $143.35, the price is 50% below the base-case value of $285.46 (the bear case is $169.98). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 6.9% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$169.98
Base
$285.46
Bull
$447.89
Price $143.35
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $843.0M | 5.6% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $169.98 |
| base | $843.0M | 9.6% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $285.46 |
| bull | $843.0M | 12.6% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $447.89 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $351 | $394 | $442 | $495 |
Fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $554 |
| 7.1% | $278 | $310 | $347 | $387 | $432 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $230 | $256 | $285 | $318 | $353 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $197 | $219 | $243 | $269 | $298 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $173 | $191 | $211 | $234 | $258 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $143.35 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$17.2B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
9.0%
Operating margin (avg)
8.4%
Return on equity (avg)
30%
ROIC (avg)
61%
Normalised owner earnings
$843.0M
Cash conversion
100%
Net cash
$1.4B
Debt payback
n/a
Share count change (CAGR)
-3.0%
Price / earnings
14×
Owner earnings yield
6.9%
Missing from the filings: debt.