HD · NYSE · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers
$315.59 · $314.0B market value · fiscal year to 1 Feb 2026
Live from the latest filings
7 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -20%
Bear
$130.29
Base
$263.54
Bull
$451.29
Price $315.59
7 pass · 2 mixed · 1 fail · 0 can't tell
At $315.59, the price is above the base-case value of $263.54 (the bear case is $130.29), so there is no margin of safety (-20%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 2607%, reaching 15% in 7 of the years measured; the weakest year was 146%. The ratio is unreliable: equity was zero or negative in several years, so those years have no ROE.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 4.9% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 0.8% around its average.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 41% over 10 years and was 24% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $53.9B would take 3.5 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 8.7×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $15.4B, and free cash flow has averaged 101% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.0× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $2.5B last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 2.4× of market value created ($58.9B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -2.4% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$130.29
Base
$263.54
Bull
$451.29
Price $315.59
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $15.4B | 0.5% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $130.29 |
| base | $15.4B | 4.5% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $263.54 |
| bull | $15.4B | 7.5% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $451.29 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 0.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $333 | $383 | $440 | $503 |
Fiscal year to 1 Feb 2026
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $574 |
| 7.1% | $251 | $290 | $333 | $381 | $435 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $198 | $229 | $264 | $302 | $345 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $161 | $187 | $215 | $247 | $282 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $134 | $155 | $180 | $206 | $236 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $315.59 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$164.7B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
6.4%
Operating margin (avg)
14%
Return on equity (avg)
2607%
ROIC (avg)
41%
Normalised owner earnings
$15.4B
Cash conversion
101%
Net debt
$52.5B
Debt payback
3.5 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-2.4%
Price / earnings
22×
Owner earnings yield
4.9%