KO · NYSE · Beverages
$93.42 · $402.9B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
6 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -108%
Bear
$22.59
Base
$44.97
Bull
$76.50
Price $93.42
The price is above even the bull case.
6 pass · 2 mixed · 2 fail · 0 can't tell
At $93.42, the price is above the base-case value of $44.97 (the bear case is $22.59), so there is no margin of safety (-108%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 2.8% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testTotal debt of $45.4B would take 4.0 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 8.3×. Payback decided this: 4 to 7 years is mixed (interest cover alone would be a pass).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -0.1% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 2.9% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 38%, reaching 15% in 9 of the years measured; the weakest year was 6.2%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 15% over 10 years and was 17% in the latest year.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $11.3B, and free cash flow has averaged 122% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.4× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $1.9B last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 20× of market value created ($11.3B retained in total).
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$22.59
Base
$44.97
Bull
$76.50
Price $93.42
The price is above even the bull case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $11.3B | 0.4% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $22.59 |
| base | $11.3B | 4.4% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $44.97 |
| bull | $11.3B | 7.4% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $76.50 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 0.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $57 | $65 | $75 | $85 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $97 |
| 7.1% | $43 | $49 | $57 | $65 | $74 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $34 | $39 | $45 | $51 | $59 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $28 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $48 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 | $40 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $93.42 on 19 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$47.9B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
1.5%
Operating margin (avg)
25%
Return on equity (avg)
38%
ROIC (avg)
15%
Normalised owner earnings
$11.3B
Cash conversion
122%
Net debt
$35.2B
Debt payback
4.0 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-0.1%
Price / earnings
31×
Owner earnings yield
2.8%