KR · NYSE · Retail-Grocery Stores
$63.09 · $41.3B market value · fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Live from the latest filings
4 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -1196%
Bear
-$3.24
Base
$4.87
Bull
$18.65
Price $63.09
The price is above even the bull case.
4 pass · 3 mixed · 3 fail · 0 can't tell
Total debt of $15.9B would take 13.3 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 3.0×. Both tests set this result: payback over 7 years and interest cover under 4x.
Why this testAt $63.09, the price is above the base-case value of $4.87 (the bear case is -$3.24), so there is no margin of safety (-1196%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 2.9% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 25%, reaching 15% in 9 of the years measured; the weakest year was 14%. Debt is high enough that some of that return is borrowed.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 12% over 10 years and was 8.7% in the latest year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 0.7× of market value created ($13.3B retained in total).
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 0.5% around its average.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $1.2B, and free cash flow has averaged 116% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.2× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $3.8B last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -4.1% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
-$3.24
Base
$4.87
Bull
$18.65
Price $63.09
The price is above even the bull case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $1.2B | -5.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | -$3.24 |
| base | $1.2B | -3.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $4.87 |
| bull | $1.2B | 0.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $18.65 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -7.0% | -5.0% | -3.0% | -1.0% | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $9 | $13 | $17 | $22 |
Fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $28 |
| 7.1% | $3 | $6 | $10 | $13 | $18 |
|---|
| 8.2% | -$0 | $2 | $5 | $8 | $11 |
|---|
| 9.2% | -$3 | -$1 | $1 | $4 | $7 |
|---|
| 10.2% | -$5 | -$3 | -$1 | $1 | $3 |
|---|
Greyed cells are more than three times, or under a third of, the middle value. They show how sensitive the model is. Treat them as bounds.
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $63.09 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$147.6B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
2.8%
Operating margin (avg)
2.2%
Return on equity (avg)
25%
ROIC (avg)
12%
Normalised owner earnings
$1.2B
Cash conversion
116%
Net debt
$12.5B
Debt payback
13.3 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-4.1%
Price / earnings
41×
Owner earnings yield
2.9%