LPX · NYSE · Lumber & Wood Products (No Furniture)
$72.56 · $5.1B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
3 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -104%
Bear
$20.52
Base
$35.63
Bull
$56.92
Price $72.56
The price is above even the bull case.
3 pass · 3 mixed · 4 fail · 0 can't tell
One loss year across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 13% around its average.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 5.6× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $291.0M last year.
Why this testAt $72.56, the price is above the base-case value of $35.63 (the bear case is $20.52), so there is no margin of safety (-104%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 3.1% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 35%, reaching 15% in 6 of the years measured; the weakest year was -0.4%. The ratio is unreliable: several years above 60% point to very little equity rather than extraordinary economics.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 36% over 10 years and was 8.7% in the latest year. The latest year is below the 10% a pass needs, so recent returns are weaker than the average.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 0.6× of market value created ($3.9B retained in total).
Why this testTotal debt of $348.0M would take 2.2 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 12×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $156.0M, and free cash flow has averaged 83% of reported profit.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -7.8% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$20.52
Base
$35.63
Bull
$56.92
Price $72.56
The price is above even the bull case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $156.0M | -3.3% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $20.52 |
| base | $156.0M | 0.7% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $35.63 |
| bull | $156.0M | 3.7% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $56.92 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -3.3% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $43 | $49 | $55 | $63 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $71 |
| 7.1% | $34 | $38 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 | $45 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $24 | $27 | $30 | $34 | $38 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $21 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $33 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $72.56 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$2.7B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
2.2%
Operating margin (avg)
19%
Return on equity (avg)
35%
ROIC (avg)
36%
Normalised owner earnings
$156.0M
Cash conversion
83%
Net debt
$56.0M
Debt payback
2.2 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-7.8%
Price / earnings
35×
Owner earnings yield
3.1%