M · NYSE · Retail-Department Stores
$23.38 · $6.5B market value · fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Live from the latest filings
5 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 51%
Bear
$26.35
Base
$47.91
Bull
$78.31
Price $23.38
The price is below even the bear case.
5 pass · 1 mixed · 4 fail · 0 can't tell
One loss year across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 10% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 8.9%, reaching 15% in 4 of the years measured; the weakest year was -88%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 6.9% over 10 years and was 13% in the latest year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by -3.4× of market value created ($799.0M retained in total).
Why this testTotal debt of $2.4B would take 2.6 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 7.4×. Interest cover decided this: 4x to 8x is mixed (payback alone would be a pass, at 4 years or less).
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $927.2M, and free cash flow has averaged 281% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 0.6× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $373.0M last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.3% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $23.38, the price is 51% below the base-case value of $47.91 (the bear case is $26.35). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 14% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$26.35
Base
$47.91
Bull
$78.31
Price $23.38
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $927.2M | -4.1% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $26.35 |
| base | $927.2M | -0.1% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $47.91 |
| bull | $927.2M | 2.9% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $78.31 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -4.1% | -2.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $58 | $66 | $76 | $86 |
Fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $98 |
| 7.1% | $45 | $52 | $59 | $67 | $76 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $37 | $42 | $48 | $54 | $62 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $31 | $35 | $40 | $46 | $52 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 | $44 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $23.38 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$22.6B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
-1.5%
Operating margin (avg)
2.4%
Return on equity (avg)
8.9%
ROIC (avg)
6.9%
Normalised owner earnings
$927.2M
Cash conversion
281%
Net debt
$1.2B
Debt payback
2.6 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.3%
Price / earnings
10×
Owner earnings yield
14%