META · Nasdaq · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.
$689.32 · $1.8T market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
6 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -69%
Bear
$237.15
Base
$408.57
Bull
$649.67
Price $689.32
The price is above even the bull case.
6 pass · 1 mixed · 3 fail · 0 can't tell
Capital spending has averaged 2.7× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $51.5B last year.
Why this testAt $689.32, the price is above the base-case value of $408.57 (the bear case is $237.15), so there is no margin of safety (-69%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 2.1% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 7.0% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 26%, reaching 15% in 10 of the years measured; the weakest year was 19%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 40% over 10 years and was 30% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $58.7B would take 1.6 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 71×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $36.9B, and free cash flow has averaged 95% of reported profit.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 4.8× of market value created ($299.8B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.4% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$237.15
Base
$408.57
Bull
$649.67
Price $689.32
The price is above even the bull case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $36.9B | 6.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $237.15 |
| base | $36.9B | 10.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $408.57 |
| bull | $36.9B | 13.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $649.67 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $507 | $570 | $641 | $720 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $808 |
| 7.1% | $398 | $446 | $500 | $559 | $626 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $327 | $366 | $409 | $456 | $509 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $278 | $310 | $345 | $384 | $428 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $242 | $268 | $298 | $331 | $368 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $689.32 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$201.0B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
25%
Operating margin (avg)
39%
Return on equity (avg)
26%
ROIC (avg)
40%
Normalised owner earnings
$36.9B
Cash conversion
95%
Net cash
$22.8B
Debt payback
1.6 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.4%
Price / earnings
29×
Owner earnings yield
2.1%