MLI · NYSE · Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals
$56.46 · $6.3B market value · fiscal year to 27 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
8 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 70%
Bear
$114.14
Base
$190.50
Bull
$297.89
Price $56.46
The price is below even the bear case.
8 pass · 1 mixed · 1 fail · 0 can't tell
The diluted share count has changed by 7.7% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 7.1% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 25%, reaching 15% in 8 of the years measured; the weakest year was 12%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 30% over 10 years and was 40% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $0.0 would take 0.0 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 8875×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $711.7M, and free cash flow has averaged 100% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.1× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $18.3M last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 2.0× of market value created ($2.9B retained in total).
Why this testAt $56.46, the price is 70% below the base-case value of $190.50 (the bear case is $114.14). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 11% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$114.14
Base
$190.50
Bull
$297.89
Price $56.46
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $711.7M | 6.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $114.14 |
| base | $711.7M | 10.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $190.50 |
| bull | $711.7M | 13.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $297.89 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $234 | $263 | $294 | $329 |
Fiscal year to 27 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $368 |
| 7.1% | $186 | $207 | $231 | $258 | $287 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $154 | $171 | $191 | $212 | $235 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $132 | $146 | $162 | $180 | $199 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $116 | $128 | $141 | $156 | $172 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $56.46 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$4.2B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
8.2%
Operating margin (avg)
14%
Return on equity (avg)
25%
ROIC (avg)
30%
Normalised owner earnings
$711.7M
Cash conversion
100%
Net cash
$1.4B
Debt payback
0.0 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
7.7%
Price / earnings
8.2×
Owner earnings yield
11%