NUE · NYSE · Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)
$261.71 · $60.5B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
3 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -1215%
Bear
$5.76
Base
$19.90
Bull
$42.33
Price $261.71
The price is above even the bull case.
3 pass · 3 mixed · 4 fail · 0 can't tell
Return on equity averaged 21%, reaching 15% in 5 of the years measured; the weakest year was 6.8%. Debt is high enough that some of that return is borrowed. The latest year (8.5%) is below 12%, so the average overstates where returns are now.
Why this testTotal debt of $7.1B would take 10.8 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 16×. Payback decided this: over 7 years fails (interest cover alone would be a pass).
Why this testAt $261.71, the price is above the base-case value of $19.90 (the bear case is $5.76), so there is no margin of safety (-1215%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 1.1% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 7.3% around its average.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 19% over 10 years and was 8.6% in the latest year. The latest year is below the 10% a pass needs, so recent returns are weaker than the average.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 2.0× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $2.9B last year.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $658.0M, and free cash flow has averaged 83% of reported profit.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.7× of market value created ($23.9B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -3.6% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$5.76
Base
$19.90
Bull
$42.33
Price $261.71
The price is above even the bull case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $658.0M | -5.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $5.76 |
| base | $658.0M | -2.3% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $19.90 |
| bull | $658.0M | 0.7% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $42.33 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | -6.3% | -4.3% | -2.3% | -0.3% | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $27 | $33 | $40 | $48 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $57 |
| 7.1% | $18 | $22 | $28 | $34 | $41 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $12 | $16 | $20 | $25 | $30 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $7 | $11 | $14 | $18 | $23 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $4 | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 |
|---|
Greyed cells are more than three times, or under a third of, the middle value. They show how sensitive the model is. Treat them as bounds.
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $261.71 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$32.5B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
8.0%
Operating margin (avg)
13%
Return on equity (avg)
21%
ROIC (avg)
19%
Normalised owner earnings
$658.0M
Cash conversion
83%
Net debt
$4.4B
Debt payback
10.8 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-3.6%
Price / earnings
35×
Owner earnings yield
1.1%