NVR · NYSE · Operative Builders
$5,938.47 · $18.2B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
9 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 54%
Bear
$7,731.42
Base
$13,016.51
Bull
$20,454.13
Price $5,938.47
The price is below even the bear case.
9 pass · 1 mixed · 0 fail · 0 can't tell
Debt isn't reported in the filings, so payback can't be measured. Operating income covers interest 60×, which suggests debt is modest.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 3.5% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 40%, reaching 15% in 10 of the years measured; the weakest year was 33%.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 144% over 10 years and was 71% in the latest year.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $1.5B, and free cash flow has averaged 94% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.1× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $24.5M last year.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 1.1× of market value created ($10.7B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -3.2% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $5,938.47, the price is 54% below the base-case value of $13,016.51 (the bear case is $7,731.42). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 8.2% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$7,731.42
Base
$13,016.51
Bull
$20,454.13
Price $5,938.47
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $1.5B | 4.4% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $7,731.42 |
| base | $1.5B | 8.4% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $13,016.51 |
| bull | $1.5B | 11.4% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $20,454.13 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $15,965 | $17,936 | $20,135 | $22,587 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $25,316 |
| 7.1% | $12,631 | $14,132 | $15,806 | $17,668 | $19,738 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $10,479 | $11,679 | $13,014 | $14,499 | $16,147 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $8,975 | $9,966 | $11,067 | $12,290 | $13,645 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $7,866 | $8,703 | $9,633 | $10,663 | $11,805 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $5,938.47 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$10.3B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
6.6%
Operating margin (avg)
17%
Return on equity (avg)
40%
ROIC (avg)
144%
Normalised owner earnings
$1.5B
Cash conversion
94%
Net cash
$2.0B
Debt payback
n/a
Share count change (CAGR)
-3.2%
Price / earnings
14×
Owner earnings yield
8.2%
Missing from the filings: debt.