ORLY · Nasdaq · Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores
$89.72 · $76.8B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
6 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety -65%
Bear
$28.45
Base
$54.52
Bull
$91.22
Price $89.72
6 pass · 2 mixed · 2 fail · 0 can't tell
At $89.72, the price is above the base-case value of $54.52 (the bear case is $28.45), so there is no margin of safety (-65%). The standard lens asks for 25%.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 2.9% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 1218%, reaching 15% in 6 of the years measured; the weakest year was 58%. The ratio is unreliable: shareholders' equity is negative in the latest year, so ROE cannot be measured for it.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 2.0× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $789.9M last year.
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 0.9% around its average.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 51% over 10 years and was 54% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $6.0B would take 2.7 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 15×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $2.2B, and free cash flow has averaged 97% of reported profit.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 2.9× of market value created ($17.2B retained in total).
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -5.7% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$28.45
Base
$54.52
Bull
$91.22
Price $89.72
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $2.2B | 3.1% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $28.45 |
| base | $2.2B | 7.1% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $54.52 |
| bull | $2.2B | 10.1% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $91.22 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $69 | $79 | $89 | $102 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $115 |
| 7.1% | $52 | $60 | $68 | $78 | $88 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $42 | $48 | $55 | $62 | $70 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $35 | $39 | $45 | $51 | $58 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $29 | $33 | $38 | $43 | $49 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $89.72 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$17.8B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
8.4%
Operating margin (avg)
20%
Return on equity (avg)
1218%
ROIC (avg)
51%
Normalised owner earnings
$2.2B
Cash conversion
97%
Net debt
$5.8B
Debt payback
2.7 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-5.7%
Price / earnings
30×
Owner earnings yield
2.9%