POOL · Nasdaq · Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods
$171.49 · $6.4B market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
8 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 32%
Bear
$131.34
Base
$250.79
Bull
$418.92
Price $171.49
8 pass · 2 mixed · 0 fail · 0 can't tell
Return on equity averaged 66%, reaching 15% in 10 of the years measured; the weakest year was 33%. The ratio is unreliable: an average above 60% usually reflects very little equity rather than extraordinary economics.
Why this testEach dollar retained over the period has been matched by 0.7× of market value created ($2.7B retained in total).
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 2.4% around its average.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 28% over 10 years and was 19% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $1.2B would take 2.9 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 12×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $418.8M, and free cash flow has averaged 87% of reported profit.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 1.4× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $56.3M last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.6% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $171.49, the price is 32% below the base-case value of $250.79 (the bear case is $131.34). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 6.5% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$131.34
Base
$250.79
Bull
$418.92
Price $171.49
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $418.8M | 4.0% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $131.34 |
| base | $418.8M | 8.0% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $250.79 |
| bull | $418.8M | 11.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $418.92 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $317 | $362 | $411 | $467 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $529 |
| 7.1% | $242 | $276 | $314 | $356 | $403 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $193 | $220 | $251 | $284 | $322 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $159 | $182 | $207 | $235 | $265 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $134 | $153 | $174 | $198 | $224 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $171.49 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$5.3B
Revenue growth (CAGR)
8.3%
Operating margin (avg)
12%
Return on equity (avg)
66%
ROIC (avg)
28%
Normalised owner earnings
$418.8M
Cash conversion
87%
Net debt
$1.1B
Debt payback
2.9 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.6%
Price / earnings
16×
Owner earnings yield
6.5%