VRTS · NYSE · Investment Advice
$118.96 · $824.2M market value · fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Live from the latest filings
6 of 10
Buffett tests pass
Margin of safety 85%
Bear
$451.11
Base
$780.12
Bull
$1,242.88
Price $118.96
The price is below even the bear case.
6 pass · 3 mixed · 1 fail · 0 can't tell
Each dollar retained over the period has been matched by -0.1× of market value created ($684.8M retained in total).
Why this testNo loss years across 15 years of filings, with operating margin varying by 5.3% around its average.
Why this testReturn on equity averaged 14%, reaching 15% in 3 of the years measured; the weakest year was 8.1%.
Why this testNormalised owner earnings are $191.9M, and free cash flow has averaged -35% of reported profit.
Why this testAfter-tax return on invested capital averaged 20% over 10 years and was 14% in the latest year.
Why this testTotal debt of $390.0M would take 2.0 yrs of normalised owner earnings to repay; operating income covers interest 8.8×. Both tests pass: payback within 4 years and interest cover of 8x or more.
Why this testCapital spending has averaged 0.2× depreciation; estimated maintenance capex was $6.9M last year.
Why this testThe diluted share count has changed by -1.3% a year. Shrinking means buybacks are returning value; growing means owners are being diluted.
Why this testAt $118.96, the price is 85% below the base-case value of $780.12 (the bear case is $451.11). The standard lens asks for a 25% margin.
Why this testThe owner-earnings yield is 23% against a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%.
Why this testDiscounted owner earnings
Bear
$451.11
Base
$780.12
Bull
$1,242.88
Price $118.96
The price is below even the bear case.
| Scenario | Starting owner earnings | Growth (yrs 1–5) | Terminal | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | $191.9M | 5.9% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $451.11 |
| base | $191.9M | 9.9% | 2.5% | 8.2% | $780.12 |
| bull | $191.9M | 12.9% | 3.0% | 7.2% | $1,242.88 |
How sensitive is that?
| Discount ↓ / Growth → | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $968 | $1,090 | $1,226 | $1,377 |
Fiscal year to 31 Dec 2025
Replicly is a research and education tool. It is not financial advice and does not recommend that you buy or sell any investment. Analyses apply Buffett-inspired principles to public data and can be wrong. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are not affiliated with and do not endorse Replicly. Capital is at risk.
| $1,546 |
| 7.1% | $759 | $852 | $955 | $1,070 | $1,197 |
|---|
| 8.2% | $624 | $698 | $780 | $872 | $973 |
|---|
| 9.2% | $529 | $590 | $658 | $733 | $817 |
|---|
| 10.2% | $460 | $511 | $568 | $632 | $702 |
|---|
Green: at least 25% above the price. Amber: above it. Red: below it. n/a means the discount rate is at or below growth, where the model has no finite answer. The corners combine the most extreme assumptions, so treat them as bounds.
Discount rate: 10-year Treasury (5.2%) plus a 3% equity hurdle. Price $118.96 on 20 Oct 2026. End-of-day prices from free public sources, may be delayed or missing.
Revenue
$852.9M
Revenue growth (CAGR)
11%
Operating margin (avg)
21%
Return on equity (avg)
14%
ROIC (avg)
20%
Normalised owner earnings
$191.9M
Cash conversion
-35%
Net cash
$88.2M
Debt payback
2.0 yrs
Share count change (CAGR)
-1.3%
Price / earnings
6.0×
Owner earnings yield
23%